← The Armoury Store Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at The Armoury Store Championships
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.9%
avg ELO +7.1 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1358
· median 1358
· range 1358–1358
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1019
Q1 1098
Q3 1358
1624
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Exia Jin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
